Iran Shoots Itself in the Foot

January 17, 2013 § 6 Comments

iransyriahizbThis was written for the excellent Lobelog.

In August 2012 Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi attended a meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in Tehran. His presence at the conference was something of a diplomatic victory for the Iranian leadership, whose relations with Egypt, the pivotal Arab state, had been at the lowest of ebbs since the 1979 revolution.

Egypt’s President Sadat laid on a state funeral for the exiled Iranian shah. A Tehran street was later named after Khalid Islambouli, one of Sadat’s assassins. Like every Arab country except Syria, Egypt backed Iraq against Iran in the First Gulf War. Later, Hosni Mubarak opposed Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, worked with the US and Saudi Arabia against Iran’s nuclear program, and was one of the Arab dictators (alongside the Abdullahs of Jordan and Saudi Arabia) to warn darkly of a rising “Shi’ite cresent”. Not surprisingly, Iran was so overjoyed by the 2011 revolution in Egypt that it portrayed it as a replay of its own Islamic Revolution.

Iran also rhetorically supported the revolutions in Tunisia and Libya, the uprising in Yemen, and, most fervently, the uprising in Shia-majority Bahrain.

In Syria, however, Iran supported the Assad tyranny against a popular revolution even as Assad escalated repression from gunfire and torture to aerial bombardment and missile strikes. Iran provided Assad with a propaganda smokescreen, injections of money to keep regime militias afloat, arms and ammunition, military training, and tactical advice, particularly on neutralising cyber opponents. Many Syrians believe Iranian officers are also fighting on the ground.

Iran’s backing for al-Assad is ironic because at a certain point the Syrian revolution was the one that most resembled 1979 in Iran – the violent repression of demonstrations leading to angry funerals leading to still more in a constantly expanding circle of anger and defiance; the people chanting allahu akbar from their balconies at night; women in hijabs joining women with bouffant hair to protest against regime brutality.

It was also a massive miscalculation, a lesser cousin to the miscalculations made by Bashaar al-Assad, and one which stripped the Islamic Republic of the last shreds of its revolutionary legitimacy. Like the Syrian president, Iran was popular among Syrians until twenty two months ago, even among many sectarian-minded Sunnis. (So too was Hizbullah, now widely reviled. In 2006, the Syrian people – not the regime – welcomed into their homes a million south Lebanese refugees from Israeli bombing.) It now seems very unlikely that any post-Assad dispensation in Syria will want to preserve Iranian influence. The Free Syrian Army, the anti-Assad Islamist militias, and the Syrian National Coalition all see Iran as an enemy of Syria, not as an honest broker that could help negotiate a transition.

Iranian popularity has also collapsed in the wider Arab world, where its pro-Assad policy has undercut its position more effectively than American or Israeli messaging could ever have done. (James Zogby’s poll was conducted in June 2011, too early for revulsion over Syria to have fully developed, but it nevertheless shows a dramatic decrease in favourable attitudes to Iran.)

Back in August, President Morsi (whose foreign policy has been much more intelligent than his domestic governance) chastised his hosts on the Syrian issue. “We should all express our full support to the struggle of those who are demanding freedom and justice in Syria,” he said, “and translate our sympathies into a clear political vision that supports peaceful transfer to a democratic system.” The Iranian leadership was embarrassed enough to censor this part of Morsi’s speech from its state TV broadcasts.

Morsi also offered the Iranians the following deal: Egypt would develop a warm economic and political relationship with Iran to the extent of championing Iran’s nuclear energy program and opposing sanctions in the international fora. In return, Iran would pull back from its support of the Assad regime.

By its continued support for Assad, Iran in effect rejected the deal. Nevertheless, Morsi set up a four nation contact group – Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran – which has foundered not only on Iranian intransigence but also on Saudi absences from meetings. (Saudi Arabia has offered rhetorical support and some light weapons to the Syrian resistance; it also sent troops to Bahrain to help put down the democratic uprising there.) Egyptian-Iranian consultations on Syria continue.

Morsi was actually offering something substantial to the Iranians. It’s difficult to see how negotiations involving the Americans could produce better results so long as the US, bound up as it is with Israel’s self-perceived interests in the region, insists on sanctioning Iran’s nuclear program.

This is a great shame. Alongside Russia, Iran is the only power to exert any real influence on Bashaar al-Assad. It is to be hoped that, as the fall of the Assad regime becomes more apparent, wisdom will eventually prevail in Tehran. A volte face even at this late stage would strengthen Iran in its battles with the West and would temper rising anti-Shia sentiment in Syria and the wider Arab World.

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§ 6 Responses to Iran Shoots Itself in the Foot

  • Amir says:

    THIS IS IS US GOV FRONT. DON’T TRUST THIS SITE. PRO TERRORISTS FUNDED BY THE SAUDI ARABIA. SHAME

    READ THE FOLLOWING:
    There have been many signs of improvement in Egyptian-Iranian relations since President Mohamed Morsi assumed office. In August he took part in the summit of non-aligned nations held in Iran, and Cairo now sits alongside Tehran on the five-member Syrian crisis committee. There have been official exchanges, the latest being Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s visit to Cairo on 9-10 January, as well as visits to Iran by Egyptian people’s delegations.
    The upswing in bilateral relations is not, however, unclouded. Controversy has arisen over reports of mysterious unpublicised visits. In one case Major-General Kassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force, a division of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was said to have met with Morsi’s assistant for foreign affairs. There have also been rumours of meetings between Iranian officials and members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Europe. The suggestion that the Muslim Brothers are trying to familiarise themselves with the Iranian regime’s experience in building up the revolutionary guards has caused concern in several quarters.

    http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/1056/17/Relative-values.aspx

  • Amir says:

    When a site hold Zogby, a zionist stooge, poll as evidence, this site either is zionist servant or CIA agent or both. Shame on you all. No wonder everyone attacks you who supports the terrorist in Syria. People of Syria are behind Assad against the CIA terrorists where you call “protesters”. Down with imperia lism and zionism and their supporters.

  • Amir says:

    Morsi also offered the Iranians the following deal: Egypt would develop a warm economic and political relationship with Iran to the extent of championing Iran’s nuclear energy program and opposing sanctions in the international fora. In return, Iran would pull back from its support of the Assad regime.}

    everyone with 2 brain celled knows Morsi is a stooge of the US/Israel and has to be a servant to Qatar and Saudis for $$$$$
    Iranians are not dumb like you. Erdugan is the same. Turkey is a chained dog of the US and Israel. You better to be under the dick of these stooges.

  • Amir says:

    By its continued support for Assad, Iran in effect rejected the deal.}}

    The world is praising Iran. Iran does not need reactionary Arab head of states where Oil’s money is spend to finance US/Israel wars against Muslims. Down with dumb Arab head of states who are servant of US/Israel and their extention Erdugan.

  • Sean says:

    How many Syrians do the US and Saudi backed Wahabbi terrorists have to murder before you stop describing their butchery as a “popular revolution?” Just look at all the Youtube videos of beheadings, lynchings and mass executions carried out by these savages, just as they did in Libya. Yet you support the same process of horror and atrocity in Syria that you supported in Libya, even though you’ve been resoundingly proven wrong there.

    This isn’t a revolution. It’s an invasion by psychopathic religious fanatics who think they are fighting for Islam, but in reality are fighting for the US and Israel.

  • Abdurrahman says:

    All the comments above are simply Shia extremist propaganda, spreading press.tv methodology of censuring comments that oppose Shia massacre upon majority Sunni population in Syria.

    Using labels as “wahabbi” etc are simply a copy of Israeli language when speaking about Muslims that they are oppresing, killing, torturing…

    Game Over. Nobody believes anything you butchers say. As you mentioned youtube, .. you´re right … go on and see how your Shia brothers massacre civillians with knives while they are still alive, pushed against the wall.

    You are really worst than any IDF criminal can ever be !!!

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